Polymarket Daily Temperature Markets: A City-by-City Guide

What Every City Listing Includes

For each city, this guide covers:

• Resolution station — the exact airport ASOS station Polymarket uses
• Unit — °F or °C, and typical bucket width
• Market activity — typical daily volume and how liquid it is
• Climate character — what drives forecast uncertainty in this location
• Key edges — where retail traders tend to be wrong for this city
• Model recommendation — which forecast models perform best here

North America

New York City

Resolution station: LaGuardia (KLGA, ICAO: KLGA)
Unit: °F, 1°F buckets
Activity: Very high — routinely $200K–$400K daily volume in peak periods

New York is one of the two or three most actively traded Polymarket weather markets globally. High volume means tighter spreads and more competitive pricing — but also more algorithmic participation, so mispricing closes faster.

Climate character: NYC has four distinct seasons with relatively high day-to-day temperature variability. The most difficult forecasting periods are spring and fall (transitional seasons with frequent fronts) and summer (when urban heat island effects at LaGuardia interact with sea-breeze patterns off Flushing Bay). LaGuardia's waterfront location means it runs systematically cooler than Midtown Manhattan in summer sea-breeze events and can be slower to warm in morning hours.

Key edges: The retail baseline is the Manhattan weather app reading, which consistently reads 2–6°F warmer than LaGuardia during summer sea-breeze days. On confirmed sea-breeze days (onshore easterly flow after 11am, visible on the HRRR), fading the warm-side retail flow has historically been productive. Frontal passage timing in spring/fall creates the classic misalignment between model and retail — the model is right about direction, retail anchors to yesterday.

Model recommendation: HRRR is dominant inside 18 hours for NYC — its 3-km resolution captures the sea-breeze boundary better than GFS or even NAM. NBM blends well at 24–72 hours. ECMWF is relevant for 3–5-day markets but loses to HRRR on the final day.

Station code for forecast queries: Search “KLGA” on wunderground.com or use lat/lon 40.7772, -73.8726 in Open-Meteo.

Los Angeles

Resolution station: Los Angeles International (KLAX) or Bob Hope / Hollywood Burbank (KBUR) — verify per specific market
Unit: °F, 1°F or 2°F buckets
Activity: Moderate — lower than NYC/London but active

Climate character: LA is one of the hardest cities to forecast for daily temperature markets because of the marine layer. The morning low clouds that form overnight over the ocean and push inland (the “June Gloom” pattern, though present year-round) can either burn off by 10am (allowing a 20°F swing to the afternoon high) or persist all day (keeping temperatures remarkably flat). The difference between a burn-off day and a socked-in day at LAX or Burbank can be 12–18°F.

Key edges: Models often handle marine-layer timing poorly — they may predict clear skies when the stratus persists, or predict stratus when it burns off early. The edge-aware play: check live GOES satellite imagery for cloud cover at the resolution station around 10am local time. If stratus has already cleared at LAX by 10am, the afternoon high is likely 10°F+ above the marine-layer “no-clear” scenario. If it hasn't cleared by 11am in a confirmed marine-layer setup, the cap is usually real.

Model recommendation: HRRR and NAM for marine-layer days. For clear-sky days in the dry interior flow (Santa Ana conditions), GFS and ECMWF are adequate.

Europe

London

Resolution station: London City Airport (EGLC) or Heathrow (EGLL) — confirm per market
Unit: °C, 1°C buckets
Activity: High — one of the top-volume European markets

London is the highest-volume European temperature market and the primary focus of the latency-arbitrage strategy described by the Hans323 profile. ECMWF has historically demonstrated strongest skill over the UK and Europe, making this one of the best markets to use ECMWF as the primary model.

Climate character: London's climate is maritime — mild, cloudy, highly variable at any given date. The main forecasting challenges: the timing of frontal systems moving in from the Atlantic, and the diurnal range (London often has a small diurnal range in overcast conditions — only 3–5°C between day low and high). This means small forecast errors translate directly to bucket-crossing events. 1°C buckets in London are unforgiving for the market — half a degree either way changes the outcome.

Key edges: The EGLC/EGLL distinction is important. London City Airport is in the Thames Estuary, slightly warmer in summer afternoons due to urban heat island effects; Heathrow is 24 km west, slightly cooler with a more suburban/rural profile on its western perimeter. Retail traders searching “London weather” get central London (approximately the Westminster area), which can differ meaningfully from either airport. In summer anticyclonic conditions (warm, still, sunny), central London runs 2–4°C warmer than EGLC or EGLL due to the urban heat island — the market will systematically overprice the warm buckets if retail drives pricing.

Model recommendation: ECMWF IFS HRES — the clear winner for UK temperature. Combine with Met Office UKV (available via the Met Office Data Hub API) for high-resolution UK-specific output inside 24 hours.

Station code: EGLC (London City), EGLL (Heathrow). Search on wunderground.com or use lat/lon 51.5048, 0.0495 (EGLC) or 51.4775, -0.4614 (EGLL).

Paris

Resolution station: Paris-Le Bourget (LFPB) — not Charles de Gaulle (LFPG) and not Orly (LFPO)
Unit: °C, 1°C buckets
Activity: Moderate-high

Paris is the most commonly mistraded city on Polymarket for one simple reason: the resolution station is Le Bourget, a general aviation and business aviation airport north of the city. The two major international airports (CDG and Orly) are well-known; Le Bourget is not on most traders' radar. This creates a persistent structural edge for traders who know the correct station.

Climate character: Paris has a humid continental climate modified by Atlantic influence. Summers are increasingly warm (recent heat waves produced 40°C+ in the city center). The Le Bourget station sits northeast of the city on a flat suburban plain; it tends to be slightly cooler than the Paris urban core in anticyclonic conditions (less heat island effect) and can be windier. During the record heat events, Le Bourget ran 1–3°C below the Montsouris observatory that most French meteorological discussions reference.

Key edges: The station mispricing is the single largest edge in Paris markets. Retail traders consulting Météo-France, Météo Paris apps, or accuweather for “Paris” will see the urban reading, not Le Bourget. In summer heat events, this consistently means the market overprices the top temperature buckets (because retail is anchoring to city-center max temps that won't be reflected at Le Bourget). In spring frontal events, the opposite can occur.

Model recommendation: ECMWF IFS HRES. Météo-France's AROME model (1.3 km resolution, France-specific) is available via Open-Meteo and provides the best high-resolution guidance for Paris.

Station code: LFPB. Wunderground search: “Le Bourget” or LFPB. Coordinates: 48.9694, 2.4414.

East Asia

Tokyo

Resolution station: Haneda (RJTT) or Narita (RJAA) — confirm per market
Unit: °C, 1°C buckets
Activity: Very high — one of the highest-volume Asian markets

Tokyo is the most actively traded Asian temperature market and one of the top three globally by volume. Its daily temperature markets attract significant algorithmic participation, particularly from Asian-timezone bots.

Climate character: Tokyo has a humid subtropical climate with hot, humid summers, mild springs and falls, and cool winters. The key forecasting challenges are the summer season (June–September) when Pacific high pressure can produce sustained heat waves with day-to-day temperatures very similar — and when typhoons in the western Pacific can rapidly cool temperatures within days. The timing of the baiu (rainy season) frontal system in June–July is another source of forecast uncertainty.

Haneda (RJTT) is Tokyo Bay-adjacent, on the southern shore of the city. Narita (RJAA) is 65 km northeast, in the Chiba plain — it typically runs 1–3°C cooler in summer due to reduced urban heat island and slightly stronger sea breeze. When the market resolves at Narita instead of Haneda, traders using Haneda forecasts will be systematically warm.

Key edges: JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) model output is the highest-quality forecast for Japan and is publicly available via the JMA website and via Open-Meteo's JMA API. The JMA mesoscale model (MSM) operates at 5 km resolution and has excellent skill for Tokyo station temperatures. Most Western-built bots use GFS or ECMWF; adding JMA as a model layer gives a meaningful calibration advantage in Tokyo.

Model recommendation: JMA MSM first, followed by ECMWF IFS HRES. GFS is less reliable for Japan due to lower resolution near complex coastal terrain.

Station code: RJTT (Haneda), RJAA (Narita).

Shanghai

Resolution station: Pudong International (ZSPD) or Hongqiao (ZSSS) — confirm per market
Unit: °C, 1°C buckets
Activity: Very high — typically the highest-volume city globally on Polymarket weather

Shanghai is consistently the highest-volume daily temperature market on Polymarket, driven largely by East Asian retail and algorithmic participation. Volume frequently reaches $500K+ for single-day markets in peak periods.

Climate character: Shanghai has a humid subtropical climate with hot, wet summers (frequent typhoons; heavy convective rain) and cold winters. Pudong and Hongqiao airports are separated by approximately 50 km. Pudong is coastal, adjacent to the Yangtze River estuary; Hongqiao is suburban-west of the city center. In summer, sea breeze from the east moderates Pudong temperatures; Hongqiao can run warmer in stagnant subtropical heat. A 2–4°C discrepancy between stations on certain summer days is common.

Key edges: High volume here means the market is more efficient than secondary markets — algorithmic traders are aggressive in Shanghai. The edge is narrower, but still present around model update windows and in convective-event situations where model accuracy degrades sharply. CMA (China Meteorological Administration) model output, while less publicly accessible, is the highest-quality local forecast; accessing CMA MOS via third-party aggregators gives an information edge over GFS/ECMWF-only bots.

Model recommendation: ECMWF IFS HRES as the baseline; CMA model output where accessible. HRRR does not cover China. NBM similarly US-only.

Beijing

Resolution station: Beijing Capital International (ZBAA)
Unit: °C, 1°C buckets
Activity: High

Climate character: Beijing has a continental monsoon climate — hot, humid summers (with frequent thunderstorms from June–August), bitterly cold and dry winters, and highly variable springs with frequent sand and dust events. The monsoon onset (late June/early July) and withdrawal are major forecast inflection points. ZBAA is northeast of the city center; the North China Plain to the northeast is prone to dry, warm air intrusions in spring that the models frequently underestimate.

Key edges: Dust and haze events (hazes driven by PM2.5 pollution) can suppress daytime maxima by 2–4°C compared to clear-sky conditions via reduced insolation. NWP models typically don't account for aerosol optical depth in their 2-meter temperature forecasts. A bot that incorporates satellite aerosol index (from MODIS or Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) alongside the standard temperature forecast has a meaningful edge on high-haze days in Beijing.

Hong Kong

Resolution station: Hong Kong International Airport (VHHH)
Unit: °C, 1°C buckets
Activity: High

Hong Kong is notable for being one of the few Polymarket temperature markets with a confirmed, unambiguous resolution station (VHHH) that does not have an airport-ambiguity problem. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes detailed station-level data for VHHH and several auxiliary stations.

Climate character: Hong Kong has a subtropical climate with a clear monsoon pattern. The typhoon season (May–October) regularly disrupts temperature markets when approaching storms rapidly cool temperatures and then the post-storm warming creates unusual temperature patterns. The northeast monsoon in winter brings occasional cold surges from China that drop temperatures dramatically within 24 hours.

Key edges: HKO (Hong Kong Observatory) publishes excellent local guidance including fine-scale forecasts and special statements for cold surges and typhoon approaches. Any bot that ingests HKO advisory data has an advantage over one relying purely on global NWP models, particularly for events driven by local dynamical features (typhoon tracks, South China Sea SST patterns, surge timing).

Model recommendation: ECMWF for synoptic pattern; HKO's local forecast for the fine-scale station-level temperature.

Seoul

Resolution station: Incheon International Airport (RKSI) — confirm per market
Unit: °C, 1°C buckets
Activity: Moderate-high

Climate character: Seoul has a humid continental climate with hot, humid summers (influenced by the North Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian monsoon) and cold, dry winters (dominated by the Siberian high). Incheon Airport is on Yeongjong Island in the Yellow Sea, west of the mainland Seoul city area. Its coastal position means marine influence can produce 2–4°C cooler temperatures than the Seoul urban center during summer sea-breeze events.

Key edges: KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) model output is the highest-quality local forecast for Seoul and is partially accessible via international services. Similar to Tokyo and JMA, bots relying solely on GFS/ECMWF miss the highest-resolution local guidance. The Incheon-vs.-Seoul-center discrepancy is less known to Western retail traders.

Taipei

Resolution station: Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (RCTP) — confirm per market
Unit: °C, 1°C buckets
Activity: Active

Climate character: Taiwan has a subtropical climate with year-round high temperatures and significant typhoon influence June–October. Taoyuan Airport sits on the Taoyuan Plateau west of Taipei, at slightly higher elevation than the Taipei Basin; in summer, basin heat-trapping can make Taipei city 1–3°C warmer than Taoyuan. CWA (Central Weather Administration, Taiwan) provides excellent local forecasts and warnings.

Wuhan

Resolution station: Wuhan Tianhe Airport (ZHHH)
Unit: °C, 1°C buckets
Activity: Active

Climate character: Wuhan sits in the middle Yangtze valley and is famous for its extreme summer heat — it regularly exceeds 40°C in July and August, earning its nickname as one of China's “Three Furnaces.” The flat Jianghan Plain with high summer humidity creates conditions where NWP models have historically had higher error variance than coastal or mountainous locations.

Key edges: Wuhan summer heat events drive high retail interest and often significant mispricing when the narrative dominates price action. When the city is in the news for extreme heat, retail piles into the top buckets; models may be more sanguine (or less confident) about the exact magnitude.

Reading This Table Before You Trade

Before placing any position on any city, verify three things:

1. The exact resolution station for this specific market — open the market description on Polymarket and read the resolution source. Don't assume it matches a prior market in the same city series.
2. The current forecast at that station's coordinates — not the city name in a weather app.
3. Whether the market unit is °F or °C — and what the bucket width is.

The city guide above gives you the baseline, but Polymarket has changed resolution stations between market series. The only authoritative source is the specific market's published rules.

Which Cities Offer the Most Edge?

This is the question every serious weather trader asks, and the honest answer depends on your strategy type:

For latency-arbitrage (model-update speed): London and Tokyo. Both have large volumes, ECMWF relevance, and active repricing around model runs.

For station-discrepancy plays: Paris (Le Bourget gap) and Los Angeles (marine-layer). Both are cities where retail systematically uses the wrong reference point.

For liquidity-provision: Buenos Aires, Cape Town, and secondary Asian cities (when active). Wide spreads, lower bot saturation, calibrated forecasters can quote inside the spread and earn.

For high-volume directional plays: Shanghai and New York. Deepest books, most frequent opportunities, but also most competitive.

Related articles

• Polymarket Weather Markets Explained: How Daily Temperature Trading Works
• How to Trade Polymarket Weather Markets: A Complete Guide
• Polymarket Weather Strategy: How to Find and Keep an Edge