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Blog
Guides, research, and strategy for Polymarket weather traders.
Polymarket Weather Markets Explained: How Daily Temperature Trading Works
How Polymarket daily temperature markets work, how they resolve at airport stations, and what makes them different from other prediction markets.
How to Trade Polymarket Weather Markets: A Complete Guide
Complete guide to trading Polymarket weather markets — from wallet setup to translating forecasts into probabilities, calculating edge, and sizing with Kelly.
Polymarket Weather Predictions: How the Odds Are Set
What drives Polymarket weather market prices: new model runs, real-time observations, ensemble spread, and retail biases — and how to read a market before you trade.
The Polymarket Weather Leaderboard: Who's Winning and How
Polymarket weather leaderboard: who gopfan2, ColdMath, and Hans323 are, how each trader operates, and what separates consistent winners from lucky guesses.
Polymarket Weather Bot: How Automated Trading Works
How Polymarket weather bots work: the core trading loop, three APIs, probability estimation methods, and the best open-source options available on GitHub.
Polymarket Daily Temperature Markets: A City-by-City Guide
Every city with consistent daily temperature market activity on Polymarket — resolution stations, units, climate character, key edges, and model recommendations.
Polymarket Weather Strategy: How to Find and Keep an Edge
Finding a real edge in Polymarket weather markets requires a process: generating a hypothesis, testing it against historical data, measuring its magnitude, and monitoring its decay.
Kalshi vs Polymarket Weather Markets: Which Is Better for Trading?
The concrete differences between Kalshi and Polymarket weather markets — regulatory structure, fees, liquidity, market types, and cross-platform arbitrage.
ColdMath Polymarket: Inside the Most Famous Weather Trading Strategy
Everything publicly known about ColdMath — the on-chain data, the inferred strategy, the $300 to $219K claim, and what traders can legitimately learn from it.
Polymarket Weather Market Resolution: How Your Bet Gets Settled
Every step of how a Polymarket daily temperature market goes from closed to paid out — the UMA oracle, the liveness window, Wunderground data, and common edge cases.
ECMWF vs GFS: Which Weather Model Should You Use for Polymarket Trading?
When ECMWF and GFS disagree, which model do you trust? A detailed comparison of both models for Polymarket daily temperature trading — accuracy by lead time, city-by-city recommendations, and how to handle model disagreement.
Is Polymarket Weather Trading Profitable? An Honest Assessment
An honest look at who makes money in Polymarket weather markets — leaderboard evidence, realistic return models, who it works for, and who it doesn't.
Polymarket Weather for Beginners: Your First Trade, Step by Step
Starting from zero: what Polymarket daily temperature markets are, how to fund a wallet, how to read a market, and how to place your first informed trade.
The Kelly Criterion for Polymarket Weather Trading: Position Sizing That Doesn't Blow Up Your Bankroll
How to apply the Kelly Criterion to Polymarket weather bets — the formula, why full Kelly is dangerous in practice, fractional Kelly sizing, and hard caps that protect your bankroll.
gopfan2 Polymarket: The $343K Tail-Buying Strategy Explained
Everything publicly known about gopfan2 — the #1 Polymarket weather leaderboard wallet, the tail-buying strategy that generated $343K, why it worked, and what it looks like today.